Francis Galton very cleverly coined the term "regression to (or towards) the mean" meaning that if a variable is shown extreme in a first measurement, then the following observed values of that very variable will tend to get closer to the average of its distribution. The classical example is height: a tall child will have … Sigue leyendo Regression to the mean (or at the end, people are not as smart as you could expect)
Etiqueta: Colombia
Data Literacy
Once again I have decided to pimp my blog. This time is a significant change: the name. This blog began a long time ago. It was 2006; I was 22-year-old, and I was enrolled in a Master of Science in Statistics. I had plenty of doubts about statistics, data science, and uncertainty (fortunately, some of … Sigue leyendo Data Literacy
#PredictiveCOL – Forecasting Colombia’s peace plebiscite (final update)
For sure, this is the more exciting forecast I have ever done. On one hand, I am Colombian guy, and I really want to live in a peaceful country, and I do want a better place for raising my children. On the other hand, I am very serious when it comes to forecasting.Maybe you have … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL – Forecasting Colombia’s peace plebiscite (final update)
My talk in Bogotá – Pvalues: use and abuse
Did you know that American Statistical Association (ASA) made a disclaimer about the proper use of p-values? Moreover, ASA (the oldest scientific association in the USA) claimed that: P-values can indicate how incompatible the data are with a specified statistical model. P-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the … Sigue leyendo My talk in Bogotá – Pvalues: use and abuse
Estadística aplicada en la evaluación de la educación – Call for papers
La Revista Comunicaciones en Estadística ha alcanzado en muy poco tiempo una connotación importante en el ámbito local. Como prueba de ello, la revista fue aceptada en el Current Index to Statistics y además Colciencias decidió clasificarla en la categoría B en Publindex. Este es un gran logro para su consejo editorial, en cabeza de … Sigue leyendo Estadística aplicada en la evaluación de la educación – Call for papers
La ventaja – Modelos politómicos en IRT
El viernes en la tarde, en medio de un seminario, pregunté lo siguiente:¿Cuáles son las ventajas de los modelos politómicos en IRT frente a técnicas más simples como componentes principales categóricos?Y es que en términos de construcción de índices, los analistas de las encuestas sociales tienden a escoger técnicas de análisis multivariantes para la construcción … Sigue leyendo La ventaja – Modelos politómicos en IRT
Estimación por muestreo del índice de Gini para las localidades de Bogotá usando funciones en R
En este artículo se estima el índice de Gini - basado en los ingresos de una población - para la ciudad de Bogotá (y sus diecinueve localidades) utilizando la Encuesta Multipropósito de Bogotá (EMB) y junto con sus módulos específicos se estima, utilizando pesos de muestreo, el índice de Gini por cada localidad, definiendo las variables … Sigue leyendo Estimación por muestreo del índice de Gini para las localidades de Bogotá usando funciones en R
#PredictiveCOPA – Chile vs. Ecuador
As the author of this blog is committed with Colombia national soccer team, here we are again with our predictions (for the sake of tradition) for the Copa América 2015. The opening match is Chile - Ecuador.
Reporting survey estimates: coefficient of variation and lower confidence interval bound
I had already posted something on this sort before (click here) and I want to discuss on something else. In Colombia, for example, some official statistics institutions claim that any survey estimate with an estimated coefficient of variation (CV) greater than 15% is not reliable and, although it is published, the very figure is marked … Sigue leyendo Reporting survey estimates: coefficient of variation and lower confidence interval bound
Of rankings and other demons
It has been caused a lot of noise the Synthetic Index for the Quality of Education, that has been developed jointly by ICFEs and MEN. That index is an effort to explain the reality of Colombia in terms of schools and their environment. The index has into account different components that affect the performance of schools. However, … Sigue leyendo Of rankings and other demons
Making maps in R with ggplot
This post is devoted with the quick (and free) solution of a problem that maybe some statisticians face in their jobs. Maps are becoming a valuable tool of information and you will find that R could be a comprehensive solution for this type of task.You will need to distinguish two types of data: the cartography … Sigue leyendo Making maps in R with ggplot
Thinking weirdly
Today I was talking with an old acquaintance. This guy is an statistician that thinks different. I don’t know how to describe its way of thinking, but I know how to describe our way of thinking. As Colombian statisticians:As soon as we arrive to the labor market, we begin to think with a little bit … Sigue leyendo Thinking weirdly
Muestreo, encuestas y estadísticas oficiales 