https://soundcloud.com/ustadistica-u-santo-tomas/predicciones-mundial-de-futbol-2014En el programa de la Facultad de Estadística, presentamos nuestro modelo predictivo para el mundial de futbol de Brazil.

From the info that pollsters collected about the second run, we present the first update of the predictions for the second run of the presidential election in Colombia. The trend of Zuluaga remains upward and the conditional expectation of the voting intention is higher for Zuluaga than for Santos.Now, if election were held today, this … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL (Update #1 – Second run)

At this point, pollsters cannot do polls anymore. The last polls show that Zuluaga is a very serious contender to defeat the current President of Colombia, Santos. The trend of Zuluaga is the only one that still remains upward and the conditional expectation of the voting intention is higher for Zuluaga than for Santos. Now, if … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL (Update #7 – Final prediction for the first run)

The new poll by CNC has turned the Colombian opinion upside down. Now, there is a clear polarization between Santos and Zuluaga. This is the sixth update of our predictions for the Colombian presidential run. The trend of Zuluaga is the only one that still remains upward. The scores of the remaining contenders are flatlined or … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL (Update #6)

En el programa de la Facultad de Estadística, presentamos nuestro modelo predictivo para las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia (primera vuelta).

The new poll by Cifras & Conceptos has been released. This is the fifth update of our predictions for the Colombian presidential run. The trends of Peñalosa and Zuluaga remain upward. The scores of the remaining contenders are flatlined. Now, if election were held today, this is the SNAPSHOT (mere opinion) of the run.On the other hand, … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL (Update #5)

This week new polls were released (from Datexco, CNC and IPSOS). The results of voting intention are somehow obscure because of the large proportion of undecided and blank voters. As usual, media insist in elaborating fantastic stories (big winners and so on) and giving misleading conclusions. Why? Because  with an undecided voting rate around 30% … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL (Update #4)

In case you didn’t know, some guys carried out a massive poll (more than 9000 interviewed households). Having into account that the sample size of this poll is larger than regular polls (more than 6 times), our methodology gave it a weighted score of 96% - As polls get older, they lose weight in our bayesian … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL (Update #3)

This paper present useful R functions that perform matching of panels in the Brasilian labor force survey (Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego - PME). Hope you enjoy it!

This is the second update of our predictions for the Colombian presidential run. Finally we have the definitive voter’s card, published by Colombian Registrar’s Office. That said, this is the posterior distribution of vote intention:Now, if election were held today, this is the SNAPSHOT (mere opinion) of the run. On the other hand, having into account the … Sigue leyendo #PredictiveCOL (Update #2)

This paper was published by DANE’s journal in its last edition.Several demographic methods have been developed in order to estimate a population total from a domain. Some of these methods do not take into account the random nature of the dynamic structure of the population, but are based on widely accepted demographic theories, among these techniques … Sigue leyendo Comparison of Some Small Area Estimation Techniques